Using Sagarin-Predictor ratings to generate pointspreads, and a research paper on college football simulation for the odds of winning (e.g., how likely a 7-point favorite is to win a game), I get 59% OSU to New Orleans. Here's the detail:
There are two teams slated to be in front of Ohio State when the dust settles: (1) West Virginia, and (2) the Big XII North winner. There's no longer a chance that Ohio State could get jumped, and Ohio State is in for sure if they jump West Virginia.
According to Stern, "On the Probability of Winning a Football Game":
1 point favorite - 53% likely to win
3 point favorite - 59% likely to win
5 point favorite - 64% likely to win
7 point favorite - 69% likely to win
9 point favorite - 74% likely to win
14 point favorite - 84% likely to win (not in original table, but given by sigma=14)
28 point favorite - 98% likely to win (ditto)
(I) West Virginia
West Virginia just has two games remaining (Connecticut and Pittsburgh, both at home) and they will be heavy favorites in both games.
WVU -16 vs Connecticut (0.87 LSU win [P1])
WVU -25 vs Pittsburgh (0.95 LSU win [P2])
The probability that West Virginia wins out requires P1 and then P2:
P1*P2 (83%) West Virginia wins out
(II) Big XII
Kansas plays Missouri this week. The winner plays in the Big XII title game. The opponent will be Oklahoma for sure
if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State. Should Oklahoma lose, there would be a three-way tie (Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State)
for the Big XII South champ; the various Big XII tiebreakers (head-to-head, record in division, record vs 4th-place team, etc.)
would not break the tie down to the "BCS standing" one. I assume Oklahoma, being probably the strongest team in the
Big XII South, would likely remain ahead of Texas and Oklahoma State in the BCS standings, even with the late loss to
Oklahoma State. For that reason, the calculations are done as if Oklahoma is certain to represent the Big XII South in
the Big XII title game. The Kansas-Missouri winner will be ahead of Ohio State in the BCS poll if that team wins the
Big XII title game, and out of the title race if they lose.
Kansas -8 vs Missouri (0.72 Kansas wins [P1])
Kansas -2 vs Oklahoma (0.56 Kansas wins [P2], assumes P1)
Missouri +7 vs Oklahoma (0.31 Missouri wins [P3], assumes !P1)
P2*P1 (40%) Kansas beats Missouri and beats Oklahoma
P3*(1-P1) (9%) Missouri beats Kansas and beats Oklahoma
Total: 49% that the Big XII North wins the Big XII title game.
Ohio State needs one of the two above things:
(a) West Virginia winning out (83%, P1), and
(b) the Big XII north winning the Big XII title game (49%, P2)
... to not happen.
Here are the 4 combinations:
(A) P1*P2 (41%) Ohio State finishes 3rd in BCS
(B) P1*(1-P2) (42%) Ohio State finishes 2nd to West Virginia
(C) (1-P1)*P2 (8%) Ohio State finishes 2nd to Big XII North winner
Total for 2nd: 50%
(D) (1-P1)*(1-P2) (9%) Ohio State finishes 1st in the BCS
Making BCS title game requires finishing in the top two BCS, so that chance is the sum of scenarios (B) through (D), or 59%.
(I) Matchups and total team odds
Here are the probabilities for each possible matchup:
41% Ohio State vs West Virginia
33% West Virginia vs Kansas
9% Ohio State vs someone else (Georgia, LSU, etc.)
8% West Virginia vs Missouri
7% Ohio State vs Kansas
2% Ohio State vs Missouri
And here is each individual team's chance to make the game (these total 200% because there are two teams in the game):
West Virginia - 83%
Ohio State - 59%
Kansas - 40%
Missouri - 9%
Someone else (WVa and KU/MU winner both lose) - 9%