Using Sagarin-Predictor ratings to generate pointspreads, and a research paper on college football simulation for the odds of winning (e.g., how likely a 7-point favorite is to win a game), I get 71% OSU to New Orleans. Here's the detail:
There are two teams slated to be in front of Ohio State when the dust settles: West Virginia and Missouri. Each has just one game remaining. There's no longer a chance that Ohio State could get jumped, and the odds of Ohio State jumping West Virginia seem so low as to be not worth considering at this point. The results this past weekend were a mix of favorable (LSU losing, Missouri winning as Kansas had a better shot at Oklahoma) and unfavorable (West Virginia winning a game they were very likely to win, but their only realistic chance at losing).
According to Stern, "On the Probability of Winning a Football Game":
1 point favorite - 53% likely to win
3 point favorite - 59% likely to win
5 point favorite - 64% likely to win
7 point favorite - 69% likely to win
9 point favorite - 74% likely to win
14 point favorite - 84% likely to win (not in original table, but given by sigma=14)
28 point favorite - 98% likely to win (ditto)
(I) West Virginia
West Virginia (94.27) has Pittsburgh (71.40), at home (WVa +2.59), left on their schedule. They will be prohibitive
favorites and have almost no chance to win barring an upset of USC-Stanford-type proportions.
WVU -25 vs Pittsburgh (0.95 WVU win [P1])
(II) Missouri
Missouri (88.36) plays Oklahoma (94.91) at a neutral site, in the Big XII title game next week. Missouri will be
a significant underdog according to Sagarin. (Note that I personally think Sagarin has this game too much in
Oklahoma's favor, so this calculation probably overstates the odds of Missouri losing, and therefore the odds of
Ohio State getting to New Orleans. But one has to stick to the numbers and not make excuses for ignoring them, no
matter how inconvenient or convenient that may be. Maybe I'll do another version when the Vegas lines come out.)
Missouri +7 vs Oklahoma (0.31 Missouri wins [P2])
Ohio State needs one of the two above things:
(a) West Virginia winning (95%, P1), and
(b) Missouri winning (31%, P2)
... to not happen.
Here are the 4 combinations:
(A) P1*P2 (29%) Ohio State finishes 3rd in BCS
(B) P1*(1-P2) (66%) Ohio State finishes 2nd to West Virginia
(C) (1-P1)*P2 (2%) Ohio State finishes 2nd to Missouri
Total for 2nd: 68%
(D) (1-P1)*(1-P2) (3%) Ohio State finishes 1st in the BCS
Making BCS title game requires finishing in the top two BCS, so that chance is the sum of scenarios (B) through (D), or 71%.
(I) Matchups and total team odds
Here are the probabilities for each possible matchup:
66% Ohio State vs West Virginia
29% West Virginia vs Missouri
3% Ohio State vs someone else (Georgia, LSU, etc.)
2% Ohio State vs Missouri
And here is each individual team's chance to make the game (these total 200% because there are two teams in the game):
West Virginia - 95%
Ohio State - 71%
Missouri - 31%
Someone else (both West Virginia and Missouri lose) - 3%